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What Is the U.S. Yield Curve Signaling About the Economic Outlook?

Group CIO Dan Ivascyn says that while there’s considerable uncertainty going forward, it’s premature to suggest a recession is imminent.

Group CIO Dan Ivascyn says that while there’s considerable uncertainty going forward, it’s premature to suggest a recession is imminent simply because we’ve seen some inversion in a portion of the U.S. yield curve.

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Daniel J. Ivascyn

Group Chief Investment Officer

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Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation

A large fiscal package geared toward pandemic relief will likely boost U.S. growth even further in 2021, but long-term inflationary risks are still balanced.

Viewpoints

Emerging Markets Asset Allocation: Investing Into the Upswing

Accelerating global economic growth, abundant liquidity, and attractive relative valuations suggest strong potential returns ahead, warranting a larger allocation toward emerging markets investments.

Quantitative Research and Analytics

The Discreet Charm of Fixed Income

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Fixed Income: Low Yields Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Bonds continue to offer numerous benefits and potential for appreciation.

Blog

Inflation Outlook: Relatively Range‑Bound

Group CIO Dan Ivascyn discusses the factors that will likely keep inflation in check over the longer term.

In Depth

Lessons From the March 2020 Market Turmoil

Markets largely held up in last year’s liquidity crunch, but we believe policymakers should address a few soft spots.

In Depth

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, February 2021

Blog

Policymakers: Pulling Out All The Stops

Governments and central banks have started to respond more forcefully to the health crisis, enacting policy in an effort to limit long-term damage to the global economy.

Quantitative Research and Analytics

The Discreet Charm of Fixed Income

In Depth

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, February 2021

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What Is the U.S. Yield Curve Signaling About the Economic Outlook?

The Author

Daniel J. Ivascyn

Latest Insights

Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike – Compounding Investors’ Concerns on Inflation

Emerging Markets Asset Allocation: Investing Into the Upswing

The Discreet Charm of Fixed Income

Fixed Income: Low Yields Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Inflation Outlook: Relatively Range‑Bound

Lessons From the March 2020 Market Turmoil

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, February 2021

Related

Policymakers: Pulling Out All The Stops

The Discreet Charm of Fixed Income

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, February 2021

Disclosures

Blog: Policymakers: Pulling Out All The Stops

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The Author

Daniel J. Ivascyn